"What will happen to Ukraine if Trump wins?" — this question became the main topic of discussion in Europe even before Donald Trump announced his election victory. Political circles advocating for Russia’s victory and Ukraine’s capitulation pinned their hopes precisely on Trump’s potential win.

Victory and its consequences

That day has come. Donald Trump has won the election. Now the countdown has begun to the inauguration, which will take place on January 20, 2025.

But is it really that simple? Pro-Russian supporters claim that it was Joe Biden and the United States who started this war. They believe that if America stops supporting Ukraine, the war will end within 24 hours.

The Ukrainian side of the issue cannot be ignored. Despite external forces trying to impose absurd ideas, the Ukrainian people continue their national liberation struggle.

What is the goal of Ukrainians, who have lost one-fifth of their territory and tens of thousands of lives? Is it possible to force Ukraine, despite Moscow’s crimes, to accept as a solution a “reward” (referring to territorial concessions — Ed.) for Russia?

Europe's position

Can Poland, the Baltic countries, or Germany be forced to accept such a “reward”? To answer this question, one must understand Ukraine’s 10-year-long national liberation struggle, in which death is considered preferable to slavery.

This struggle has already formed a doctrine: "This occupation began with Crimea and will end with its liberation."

Meanwhile, another thesis is gaining traction in the West: "Instead of focusing on lost territories, let’s focus on peace."

In Europe, the possibility of a ceasefire is being actively discussed — one that would leave Crimea, Donbas, and Luhansk under Russian control.

Western ideas also include the deployment of American, British, and German “peacekeeping forces” along the front line, which could number approximately 50,000 to 70,000 soldiers. This would effectively mean the presence of a NATO army in Ukraine.

While discussions continue, one often hears appeals: "Let the war end, no matter what."

Changes in Germany

Germany, which remained passive regarding Russian aggression during Biden’s presidency, is now facing political upheaval. The coalition government led by Olaf Scholz is falling apart, and early elections are scheduled for the end of January 2025.

Friedrich Merz is expected to become the new chancellor, and he adheres to a more active policy on Russia.

Merz, a Christian Democrat, promises to provide Ukraine with unlimited military support if Russia does not cease hostilities within 24 hours. However, this stance contradicts Trump’s approach.

Thus, in January, new governments come to power in both the US and Germany. Considering that during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 the US was led by Biden and Germany by Scholz, it is clear that Russia will try to take full advantage of the next four months.

The main topic during this period will be a plan to leave Crimea to Russia as a "military compensation" in exchange for peace. However, the new German government, which now sees itself as a target of Russia, is expected to oppose Trump’s approach to Ukraine.