The self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is likely to balance between supporting the Russian invasion and wanting to avoid direct participation in the war.
This is
stated in the report of the military intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of
the United Kingdom on Russia's military invasion of Ukraine from May 16.
The report
notes that the invasion of Ukraine could lead to Western sanctions, a response
from Ukraine, and possible discontent among the Belarusian military.
The document also notes that Belarus, as part of an exercise this month, announced the deployment of special operations forces along the border with Ukraine, as well as air defense, artillery, and missile units at landfills in the west.
"The presence of Belarusian troops near the border is likely to stop Ukrainian troops, so they will not be able to redeploy to support operations in the Donbas," the agency said.
Despite early speculation, Belarusian troops have not been directly involved in the conflict. However, Belarusian territory was used as a springboard for Russia's initial offensive on Kyiv and Chernihiv. Russia also carried out airstrikes and missile strikes from Belarus.
