The Armed Forces of Ukraine can be near the administrative border of Crimea in two weeks, or even faster, even in a week.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a blogger and military-political commentator of the "Information Resistance" group, wrote about this in a blog on the "Glavred" website.
He explained that this could happen if cascade destruction of the russian defenses takes place in the Zaporizhzhia region in the near future.
He reminded that in Crimea, and especially in its northern part, there is now a large number of forces and means of the russian occupiers, which they are in no hurry to send to the mainland of Ukraine.
"That is, these are forces and means that will be used specifically for conducting defense, which will be a certain barrier for conducting operations from the mainland to temporarily occupied Crimea. Therefore, either the russians are already preparing for the defense of Crimea, or they understand that they will not be able to hold the south under the pressure of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces," he emphasized.
In general, the expert believes that the scenarios that can be used to liberate the peninsula are not so much counter-offensive, they will be more similar to what happened on Zmiiny Island, where there was a constant fire impact on the objects of the military infrastructure of the occupiers.
Kovalenko reminded that there are many such facilities in Crimea, so this will mean constant losses among the personnel, equipment, material, and technical support of units.
"Accordingly, we can talk about the fact that Russians will constantly be in a suicidal deadlock situation when every day can be the last one for them. And they will not be able to do anything about it, because it will be impossible to flee from Crimea at that moment because there will be no corresponding order from the command. And this order will not be given, because such a "gesture of goodwill" from temporarily occupied Crimea is just impossible."