Russia may lose its dominant position in the Black Sea if Ukraine manages to regain Crimea.
This was written by the Polish publication Forsal, according to Espresso.
The publication believes that the southern direction has priority status for the Ukrainian military-political leadership.
"Probably, soon we will understand how exactly the Ukrainian command solved its main strategic dilemma, which is where to strike the main blow. Weather to Crimea or, rather, Donbas? The balance of long-term factors indicates the priority of the southern direction. Because the reconquest of the Crimea peninsula (necessarily together with Sevastopol) would fundamentally change the geostrategic puzzle, depriving Russia of its dominant position in the Black Sea, leaving it with only scraps of a poorly equipped coast near the northeastern shores of the basin, with an already tight base in Novorossiysk, which transferred the significant amount of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet from the threatening Crimea", noted in the publication.
Analysts of the publication also noted that the reconquest of Crimea would mean the collapse of the entire Russian policy of advancing to the south.
"This would destroy any chance for Russia's military threat to Odessa or Transnistria, would make it difficult to have a real influence on the situation in the Caucasian states, would weaken the possibilities of military and economic pressure on Turkey, and would make attempts at manipulation and sabotage in the Balkan countries impossible. It is symbolic that is also important, it would mean the collapse of the entire Russian policy of advancing to the south, started by Peter I near Poltava and later successfully continued by Catherine II," the publication believes.
